Times have been dark for the past day or so around the StanGraphs camp; the Cardinals team we chronicled so painstakingly all season has finally met its end, an end that came swiftly and in the bloodiest way possible. Now that I’ve had some time to grieve, and some time to attempt wiping clean the memory of Marco Scutaro prancing about in the San Francisco rain, I have little choice but to move on and remember how well the Cardinals are constructed to compete in the coming years. Focus has to shift elsewhere, if only for a little while, and elsewhere happens to be the 2012 World Series.
This season’s World Series features the Cardinal-slaying Giants as the team with home field advantage thanks to the National League’s earlier All-Star game victory, while the role of frequent visitor falls to the Detroit Tigers. The Giants finished the regular season with a 94-68 record, while the Tigers posted an 88-74 mark thanks to a slow start and a frantic finish to overtake the White Sox. If records were any indication, the Giants would be the prohibitive favorites, but you guys know we don’t necessarily roll that way, so it’s time to take a closer look at what this World Series will offer, all the while reminding you that we did manage to correctly predict the Tigers participating in this edition of the fall classic.
The general consensus, perhaps based on years of success in this department, is that surely the Giants have the edge when it comes to pitching. But hold your horses; rein those mares up with ferocity! The San Francisco starting rotation is not what it has been in recent years, as Tim Lincecum has largely lost his way and Madison Bumgarner has been mired in a struggle against opposing hitters and Bruce Bochy for over a month. That leaves the Giants with the excellent Matt Cain, the solid Ryan Vogelsong, and whatever else Bochy wants to run out there. The Giants will reportedly go ahead and let Bumgarner make his first start after benching him against the Cardinals, and I think that’s a good move given his talent level. Bochy is also sticking with his ‘hot hand” by naming Barry Zito the game one starter, though that is likely to be a thankless role as the soft lefty is tasked with opposing the likes of Justin Verlander.
Speaking of Verlander, and we’ve talked about this before, he gives the Tigers a rather deadly weapon with which to counter virtually any pitcher on the planet. Verlander could start three games in this series if the Tigers need him to, and that does a lot to improve Detroit’s odds at success. The Tigers also have solid guys to back him up. Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchezall have track records of success not just in general, but in this very postseason. It’s hard to see a lackluster Giants lineup doing much against any of those four starters, and I honestly like how Detroit’s postseason rotation (which will also be lined up perfectly thanks to taking care of the Yankees so quickly) looks much more than I like what the Giants have going for them.
That’s right; we think Justin Verlander will get to celebrate one more time in 2012. We also think his girlfriend is hot, but don’t tell him we said that. He’s huge.
While starting rotations are extremely important all year long and especially in a short series, bullpens also certainly factor into the mix. This edge goes handily to the Giants, who have a number of arms capable of muting Detroit’s lineup in the late innings. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, and George Kontos all had fine seasons and are all legitimate options Bruce Bochy has once his starters are out of the game. The Tigers have famously struggled with their bullpen; if not for Jose Valverde‘s sheer awfulness, the Tigers would have had an even easier time of the postseason than they have so far. There are quality arms to be found in the Detroit bullpen (Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke on occasion), and even Al Alburquerque can miss a bat, but games that go down to the wire could be favorable for the Giants.
Offensively, the Tigers only scored eight more runs than the Giants did all season. That’s fairly shocking, especially considering that the Tigers finished the 2012 campaign third in Major League Baseball in on-base percentage and seventh in slugging. The Giants were surprisingly eighth in OBP, though they were 18th in slugging and dealt with easier competition all season long. On the San Francisco side of things, Buster Posey is the only clear masher in the Giant lineup, though this bloated and diminished version of Pablo Sandoval has legitimately looked good at the plate recently. Hunter Pence‘s time by the bay has done quite a bit to expose him as something well short of the star many perceive him to be, while at least Angel Pagan and Brandon Belt are serviceable bats in a lineup with some serious holes. Marco Scutaro can’t post a .900 BABIP forever, after all. Seriously, aside from his ridiculous NLCS run, the Giants’ second baseman hit .362/.385/.472 during the regular season after joining his new team. That run has to end at some point, and this newfound hacktastic approach won’t fit the formerly patient infielder well.
The Tigers have quite a bit more firepower than the Giants do. Obviously Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are among the most (rightfully) feared sluggers in all of baseball, but Detroit also boasts Austin Jackson, an outfielder who has entered his prime by developing power and patience admirably. These three men are a big danger to the Giants, but the rest of the lineup has holes you could poke your head through even if your head’s pretty huge. (Our heads are huge from all the brains, by the way.) Andy Dirks had a nice season when in the lineup, but he’s still Andy Dirks. Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila have shown life in the playoffs after down regular seasons. Delmon Young is mostly terrible, and Omar Infante is an average option at best. Still, with a third of the at-bats going to the stars and the rest of the lineup offering more upside than San Francisco’s, I have to think the offensive advantage swings in Detroit’s general direction.
So where does this leave us in regards to who’ll take home the 2012 World Series championship? I have to take the Tigers, though I’ll assume the Giants claim a couple of games along the way if for no other reason than the Fox team needs two extra broadcasts to salivate over the underdog nature of a team that won its division handily. The offensive gap between the Tigers and Giants isn’t as big as one might assume, but my biggest reasoning for siding with the Tigers in this battle, other than malevolent spite, is clearly the difference in these starting rotations. The Tigers are set up for success, and the four men who are likely to get starts are all pitching well and have done so plenty before. The Giants are out of sorts, will have to wait to get Matt Cain in on the action, and are seriously counting on Barry Zito to reach into his bag of tricks and spit all over the gods of probability at least once more.
Detroit Tigers over San Francisco Giants in six games
